The Money Machine
The
NEWS before it happensthe
market for:
The go get them firms
The next post PC technologies
The next great technologies
The next companies & technologies
http://www.wiredbrain.com/NEXUM.htm
http://www.wiredbrain.com/nano.htm
High Speed Internet by Soliton
disintermedation Last updated on March 20, 1999
DOWN
40 or 50 to 1050
the short term is well into over bought
The possibility of Indonesian political stability also boosted European equities. Frankfurt gained nearly two percent to hit a closing peak and London and Paris ended with gains of about one percent.
MONDAY, May 19 (Reuters) - European stocks perked up on Tuesday as sentiment spread that U.S. interest rates would not rise and investors saw some prospects of a return to stability in Indonesia.
In currencies, the yen bounced back from a 6-1/2 year low against the dollar in early trade as President Suharto promised to call elections after rioting and looting left hundreds dead in Indonesia.
---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 0942 GMT
Mark 1.7833/38 Yen 135.91/01 Sterling 1.6252/62
Gold $299.00/9.50 -1.05 (pvs PM fix) Brent $14.31 -0.15
FTSE 100 5873.6 +47.4 CAC 3970.77 +25.46 X-DAX
5386.06 +42.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
London, Frankfurt and Paris all made hefty gains in opening transactions, in marked contrast to the pounding they took on Monday with investors jittery over U.S. interest rates and the Indonesia crisis.
London climbed 0.8 percent, with the added boost of a batch of healthy
company news. ``We've had a steep fall and
everything feels more comfortable this morning,'' said one dealer.
MONDAY
LONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - European bourses slipped on Monday amid worries
about U.S. interest rates, the crisis in
Indonesia and expectations of another choppy session from Wall Street.
By mid-session, London, Europe's largest stock market was down 1.13
percent while Paris fell 1.3 percent and Frankfurt
dipped by 1.11 percent.
---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 1124 GMT
Mark 1.7869/72 Yen 135.55/60 Sterling 1.6202/12
Gold $299.70/0.20 -0.94 (pvs PM fix) Brent $14.35 -0.05
FTSE 100 5849.1 -68.7 CAC 3937.31 -53.40 X-DAX
5349.03 -65.28
---------------------------------------------------------------
European equity dealers said increased concern over U.S. interest rates
ahead of Tuesday's meeting of the U.S. Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) were wounding sentiment even though most analysts
expect rates to remain on hold.
Concerns over hi-tech stocks also suggested a weaker Dow open after
Microsoft's (MSFT - news) talks with the U.S.
government collapsed at the weekend, making it more likely that a massive
anti-trust suit would be filed against it.
07:35 U.S. DOLLAR AT 6-YEAR HIGH AGAINST YEN AT 135.55 YEN/DOLLAR.
07:23 U.S. 30-YR TREASURY 5.964%.
07:22 CRUDE OIL (NIGHT) 14.44 UP 3 CENTS, +0.2%.
07:21 GERMAN DMARK 1.7872 UP 0.0042, OR 0.2%.
07:21 BRITISH POUND 1.6195 DOWN 0.0079, OR -0.5%.
07:21 JAPAN YEN 135.55 UP 0.8, OR 0.7%.
07:19 LEADERS OF INDONESIAN PARLIAMENT EXPECTED TO ASK SUHARTO
TO STEP DOWN.
07:19 GERMANY DAX MARKET 5364.21 DOWN 28.93, OR -0.54%.
07:19 FRANCE CAC 40 3945.86 DOWN 44.37, OR 1.1%.
07:19 LONDON FT 100 5850.4 DOWN 67.4, OR 1.1%.
E-MINI
cash
Wiredbrain's Index
Technologies
DOWN in an UP market, interest drifting up, dollar down, Asia markets down
- Europe strong but off tops, and gold and oil up
Technologies
2X market
IXCO
SOX
MSH PSE NDX 2X market
Asian's
FLAT and Europe's down from record high ( US Germany France London
)Pause in
Stocks, dollar active ( up again)
and bonds drifting down;
Asia mixed down, Europe down
from new highs:
bonds at
5.89
%
bonds
DOWN interest UP well off lows of 5.65 and off high of
6.2 on money supply, oil prices near $16 Gold at $310
Currencies
(dollar)
UP
, from rally in a tight range in a
Negative FX market -
Bottom Line:
Contrariness:
Markets do react to expectations.
They are reflective of the popular mood. BUT they also are quite contrary. When the mood is positive, greedy enough they turn down. When they are gloomy, fearful enough they turn up.
The reason for this are a side effect of the pattern of information transfer, not everyone is in the same "time zone".
The hard core traders, tied to 24 hour computer screens, come first, then professional fund managers, then general broker community, the professional press, the general press, the interested investor, the news magazines, the general public comes last. Now the gold and oil prices are up, showing certain skepticism, so are short sales and put volumes.
The strong dollar is partly due to flight to quality. It is strange and interesting that earning have such a strong impact when the valuations are so much out of line. At P/E of 25 + what does it matter if it's 22 or 27 ?
The traditional value is about 20 based on earning, with a inflation and earning forecast correction.
Growth is almost always due to technology and the opening of new territories. From the cotton and wool production of the 18th century, to railroads in the 19th, to automobiles and electric services and communications in the 20th, to computer networks in the 21st, technology opens new markets, products and services.
The current boom is due to computer technology IT ( information technology ) and the expansion of global markets. This leads to growth in jobs and incomes, which then is spent on houses, cars and investments.
The expansion of secondary markets causes a second wave, then a third.
The first wave is dying, but we are carried forward on the second and third.
The multiplier effect expands investment faster than demand until there is an over supply and a contraction sets in. This was true in textiles, in railroads, in communications, and in computers.
The contraction reduces demand, cuts jobs and incomes, and sets off a wave down. Thus it is in Asia including Japan. So the waters get choppy and confused.
The next wave is integration of satellite communications and utility
communications devices that encourage network systems of supply and demand.
Providers are connected to users by linkages which bypass the traditional
middle people.
The great pretender:
One of the troubles with long marriages is it gets hard to pretend. We all spend most of our lives pretending to know what we don’t know, doing what we can’t do, and being what we don’t want to be. We live up to others expectations that don’t fit. We are wearing the Emperor’s New Clothes, and can only hope that no one will notice their transparency.
Financial markets are the great pretenders. It’s all a hall of blue smoke and mirrors.
The actors, great and small, all have to pretend they know what is going on, have to appear confident of their knowledge of the unknowable, have to put up a brave front and live up to impossible expectations. After all the worlds financial community is built on a fragile faith that the future will be as the present, what has worked will work, and what appears to be real is real.
The future will not be the same as the present, what works now will not work then, and appearances are not what they seem.
A few brave souls are willing to look at the "really" real, those shadows of reality behind mirrors. It maybe another illusion of a different form and type, with another "reality" lurking in the background. As the hero moves around among the shadows of new realities, heroes grow beyond their own pretentious and take on some of the qualities of more stable realities. If they really get married to the reality of day to day life they know that this is all there is, shadows are cosmic jokes.
Einstein did not what to believe in quantum theory, for a long time,
because the said " nature does not play jokes or try to trick us." He believed
in the wonderful illusion of an orderly universe, with a final pattern
and cause, a universal field theory. He was wrong about a steady state
universe, and overly pretentious that reality needed to match his hopes
for order. Einstein described a reality where time and space curve.
This is not a ordinary perception. You can see what I mean about
a hall of mirrors where realities lurk one behind another.
LINKS: all the major connections
TODAY'S
TRADE :
http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeget.exe?TICKER=.DJXQJ++++++
APR 87 1 1/4 1/2 1 1/8 1 3/8 DJXPI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
AVG
APR 88 1 3/8 1/8 1 3/8 1 1/2 DJXPJ DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
AV
MSQQR
MSFT May8 90.0 PUT, Microsoft shares at $90.
08:31 MONTHLY TRADE GAP HIGHEST
SINCE SERIES BEGAN IN 1992.
Last week and Monday:
NKE NIKE INC CL 'B' 45 3/4 Closing Prices.
APR 45 N/C N/C 2 5/8 0 NKEDI NIKE INC CL B
"
The U.S. chip industry has become the leading contributor to the nation's gross domestic product among all manufacturing sectors,"
"
The evidence in
this study is indisputable.
The tiny microchip has done more to create jobs, increase incomes, generate economic growth and add value to other products than any product in America," calling semiconductors, "the railroads, automobile, telecommunications or crude oil of the Information Age."
There's still some end-of-quarter window-dressing going on and if we're heading for a big correction it won't be until then (the end of the quarter),'' said one dealer.
The settlement date for most trading was last week - many last minute trades are not recorded in this quarter but next.
S&P 500 index
The expected values of the index are 1093 and 1109 for April 17 and May 15.
Interest rates - 5.61 % LIBOR MAY98
94.39
30Y 5.79 %
Also my.yahoo.com user "wiredbrain" password "synergy"
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/america.html
There is a need to
check for last minute changes
Alternative site http://www.geocities.com/~wiredbrain/flash.htm
Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
FROM +9.5 to -9.5 (
The higher the WI score
the higher the probability of being right. The wiredbrain index
(WI) score is close to points on the S&P500 but are not points but
the summation vector on the strength of
different market forces.
Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -) (WI * 3.25) + 50 = Confidence % 3.5 * 3.25 +50 = 61.475 %
0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 61.5 % 5.5 = 67.875
% 6.5 = 71.125 % 7.5 = 74.375 % 10 = 82.5 % 15 = 90 % 15 +
= 95 %
Reports of weaker profits, dollar and bonds, due to
trade imbalances increased by relative prices, oil imports, and productivity
are beginning to show up a little.
The further unwinding of the flight to quality forced sales of US bonds causing higher interest, a weaker dollar, because of declines in exports, slower growth and reduced profits and higher costs of skilled labor.
08:31 MONTHLY TRADE GAP HIGHEST SINCE SERIES BEGAN IN 1992.
Increased imports and lower exports are reflections
of high domestic production costs vs. lower cost of imports. Europe and
Japan benefit/costs more from the lower oil prices.
Basic faults in public policy and process undermine the US's international economic position.
Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over
the next 3 months as China does now, :
remarkable
Global Momentum continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive
up under priced foreign markets - High somewhere around S&P500 at 1070,
GOING DOWN GOING UP look at this....
LINKS: all the major connections
Support Level key 200 day low now near old high of 985.
After-noon top of wave look to
go short IF and only if and when Technology
SAFE TRADE UP or hold long on
three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500 1125
SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold
on three or more *: enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target
S&P500 955
Follow
the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market
MORGAN
STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX
goes down ( it's going with the If the
$SOX TRADE-
at 10:30 AM - INDEX
PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update
):
Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
The money page will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices.
There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain" password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's important to bookmark the
Alternative
site http://www.geocities.com/~wiredbrain/flash.htm
visit
WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO 50% to 65 % gains in less than 4 months ( up from 20 % a few weeks ago )
FORMULA: SEE CHART
( average of markets )
4*[(.00005*.0135)^(2*.0135)]=2.73
Where .0135 is the average change in critical foreign markets. In Japan the banks, insurance companies and the government run the market UP before the close of their FY so the banks can show they are solvent since stocks are a large part of their assets. In the family of trading groups ( see networks.htm ) dozens of companies and their family bank own the majority of each others stock.
World Markets
( 7 )
-
1.5 IXA LA & Asia - .5 Europe add Eastern Europe and Latin America
=
LINKS all the major connections
---------------------------------------------------------------
Yahoo International not working
this morning go to my.yahoo.com sign
in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the
individual stock picks for the next century.
Bloomberg backup International markets:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/america.html
Markets with new 52 week highs:
NFT MORGAN STANLEY MULTINAT INDEX
Asia at their Benchmarks South Korea below 500 from
570 down to 465, Japan at 15,550 down from 17,024, Hong Kong to 11,000
* London to 6,100 record high, Paris at 3950*
high, Frankfort at 5,300 * high FTSE
100 6033.0 +35.1 CAC 3717.05 +28.37 X-DAX 5005.97 +56.06
to
---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 0952 GMT
Mark 1.8310/15 Yen 132.85/90 Sterling 1.6670/80
Gold $309.75/0.25 +0.80 (pvs PM fix) Brent $13.82 +0.14
FTSE 100 6045.4 -48.6 CAC 3873.00 -30.27 X-DAX
5266.93 -42.74
---------------------------------------------------------------
EU markets at new highs:
Bourses in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Milan, Madrid, Dublin, Stockholm,
Helsinki, Brussels and Athens all jumped to record intraday trading highs
while London, Europe's biggest share market, was within a whisker of its
all-time best.
BENCHMARKS: MARKET PRICES Mark 1.8290/95 Yen 127.80/85 Sterling
1.6210/24 Gold $291.40/1.90 Brent $15.4
SECOND:
( 20 % ) Currencies: (4)
-1.0 FX with more instability
in Asia & -
-1.5
on
-1.5
( out of FOUR
4
) Bond and currencies prices effect the market slowly unless there
is a major and sudden movement.
Dollar at or above benchmarks
going DOWN:
Mark 1.8310/15 Yen 132.85/90 Sterling 1.6670/80
EURO $ JUN98 94.345 -2 EURO
YEN JUN98 99.320 to 99.235
Yen At Benchmark of 125 or .008 at ( 133.5
or $.0075 ), DM at benchmark 1$ = 1.82 = 1 DM costs .55 cents at
( 1.854
or .54
), ECU at benchmark of 1$ = .92
ECU cost = $1.08 at ( .94 ECU = 1$ ECU cost
$1.065 ) Pound over $1.62 1$ =.617 pounds at (.59
$ 1.67 ) Swiss Frank 1.46 per 1 $ or costs .68 $ ( 1.535
.65 )
INDONESIA RUPIAH RISES 2.3% TO
8400 TO US DOLLAR up from above 15,000 Korea won at
1400 other gains against dollar in Asia =
-3.5
on foreign markets and FX , ( of 14 )
(
50 % 10 points)
THIRD:
Market
direction, technical and leadership (6) ( 30 % ):
-1.5
( out of five ) on
Momentum
plus
charts technical and
-1.5 from
leading tech stocks SOX index needs to be watched..
subtotal =
-7.5
SEE CHART ( average of markets ) .05^(1.75*.0135)=
- .93
FOUR Interest rates (20%) : Bond and currencies
prices effect the market slowly unless there is a major and sudden movement.
- 1.5 INTEREST
interest rates UP ( but below 6 % ) on REVERSE flight from quality at 59.4
*Thursday May 14,
There were also worries about U.S. April inflation figures, due at
1230 GMT, as dealers look for clarification on the state of
the economy ahead of next week's U.S. monetary meeting.
Benchmarks:
London 6,100 record high, Paris 4025* high,
Frankfort 5,400 * high
---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 0952 GMT
Mark 1.7743/53 Yen 134.03/13 Sterling 1.6226/36
Gold $296.75/7.25 -2.1 (pvs PM fix) Brent $14.45 -0.23
FTSE 100 5959.6 -13.3 CAC 3996.65 -23.11 X-DAX
5363.82 -8.17
---------------------------------------------------------------
London's blue chip 100 index was down around 0.25 percent, erasing
earlier gains of more than one percent, whilst the German Xetra DAX was
down 0.3 percent and France's
CAC-40 down almost 0.6 percent.
08:32 30-YEAR BOND DOWN 15/32
ON HIGHER CPI CORE RATE.
08:39 MKTS FOCUSING ON 'FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY' BUT ASIA COULD
HURT DOW: CARDILLO.
08:39 U.S. STOCK MARKETS SEEN OPENING WEAK; TECH STOCKS SEEN
UNDER PRESSURE.
08:39 S&P FUTURES DROP 4.8 POINTS AHEAD OF TRADING; NO
SUPPORT FROM CPI DATA.
08:32 30-YEAR BOND DOWN 15/32 ON HIGHER CPI CORE RATE.
08:32 APRIL CPI AS EXPECTED, CORE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
08:30 APRIL CPI UP 0.2%, CORE CPI UP 0.3%.
`
The weight of evidence is that consumers are spending too
much, the economy is exceeding Greenspan's preferred
'speed limit' and labor markets are drum-tight,'' he said,
adding the Fed might raise short-term rates in July instead
of at a policy-maker's meeting Tuesday.
The economic news initially rattled financial markets, but
prices later redounded.
The Dow Jones industrial average
ended up 50.07 points at a record 9,211.84, after Tuesday's
70-point jump.
The 30-year Treasury bond rose 16/32, or $5 on a $1,000
bond, lowering its yield, which moves in the opposite
direction, to 5.94 percent from 5.98 percent Tuesday.
*Wednesday May 13,
08:34 FIRST RISE IN PPI
IN 6 MONTHS.
08:50 US 30-YR TREASURY BOND UP 9/32 TO 102-06, YIELD AT 6.00%.
08:49 US 10-YR TREASURY BOND UP 3/32 TO 98-15, YIELD AT 5.71%.
08:49 US 5-YR TREASURY BOND UP 1/32 TO 100-14, YIELD AT 5.64%.
Blue chip shares in Frankfurt and Paris rose over one percent. London's FTSE index edged almost 0.4 percent higher.
---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 0924 GMT
Mark 1.7802/05 Yen 134.10/20 Sterling
1.6358/68
Gold $295.50/6.00 -3.15 (pvs PM fix) Brent $15.29
+0.18
FTSE 100 5980.0 +23.3 CAC 4018.37 +31.04
X-DAX 5380.73 +72.91
---------------------------------------------------------------
FOCUS-Asia markets slide on Indonesia violence
Flight to quality -
-
By Chris McCall
SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) - Violence in Indonesia shook Asian financial markets on Wednesday, as the Jakarta stock index slumped more than eight percent at one point and the rupiah sank below the 10,000 level.
In Singapore, the key Straits Times Industrials Index shed more than six percent, following the deaths of six students in a Jakarta protest on Tuesday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index suffered its biggest point drop in more than two months.
FTSE 100 5980.0 +23.3 CAC 4018.37 +31.04
X-DAX 5380.73 +72.91
---------------------------------------------------------------
08:31 APRIL PPI CORE RISES 0.2%.
08:31 APRIL PPI RISES 0.2%.
08:31 APRIL RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS RISE 0.5%.
08:31 APRIL RETAIL SALES RISE 0.5%.
Tuesday:
FTSE 100 5980.7 -47.6 CAC 3998.07 -19.17 X-DAX 5297.35 -51.40
07:16 HONG KONG HANG SENG DOWN 2.5%, AT 9841.51 HIGHER INTEREST RATES CITED.
07:24 SOUTH KOREAN MARKET DOWN SHARPLY, -2.69%, TO 351.86.
07:32 U.S. 30-YR BOND 6.038.
07:30 S&P FUTURES OFF 0.7 PTS AHEAD OF TRADING; U.S. STOCKS
SEEN OPENING MIXED.
07:30 CRUDE OIL (NIGHT) 15.32 UP 7C, OR 0.5%.
07:29 BRITISH POUND 1.6299 DOWN 0.0030 OR -0.1%.
07:29 GERMAN DMARK 1.7727 DOWN .0034, OR -0.2%.
07:29 JAPAN YEN 133.14 UP 0.38 OR +1.2%.
The Japanese Economic Planning Agency said the economy was stagnant
and conditions were becoming more severe.
Pessimism was further fanned after a report showed Japanese wholesale
prices fell 2.3 percent in April from a year earlier, the
biggest decline since July 1987.
---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 1043 GMT
Mark 1.7714/19 Yen 133.14/19 Sterling 1.6308/18
Gold $299.85/0.25 +1.15 (pvs PM fix) Brent $14.94 +0.1
FTSE 100 5980.7 -47.6 CAC 3998.07 -19.17 X-DAX
5297.35 -51.40
---------------------------------------------------------------
The UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.8 percent by mid-session following the disappointing overnight performance by Wall Street stocks.
By 1013 GMT, the leading 100 index had dropped 46.4 points to 5,981.9, having touched 5,961.6 at one stage.
The Dow had gained 100 points by the London close on Monday, helped
by a spate of corporate activity. But New York's
blue chip index ended just 36 points higher, undermined by a soft 30-year
Treasury bond which suffered from jitters over the
outlook for U.S. interest rates.
And while June T-bond futures were slightly higher, the yield on the
U.S. cash long bond still remained above the key
six-percent level.
Kalivas and other analysts said stock valuations, which have been calculated
with low bond yields, would become compressed
if U.S. yields continued to rise.
He also said the growth in U.S. corporate earnings at this point in
the business cycle may not be fast enough to offset a rise in
U.S. rates.
June Standard & Poor's 500 futures initially eased, turned higher
and backed down again within the first 15 minutes of pit trade
as the market continued to consolidate its record gains from April,
they said.
June S&Ps nearly tested 1,114.90, a minor retracement level and daily pivot point, on its opening rebound.
"Everything is sort of in a holding pattern," said Peter Coolidge, senior equity trader at Brean Murray & Co. "
There will
possibly be some nervousness about tomorrow's numbers."
April retail sales and the Producer Price Index are scheduled for early
Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index on
Thursday.
All the numbers will be closely watched for any hints on the direction of interest rates.
The Federal Reserve's policy-setting
committee meets next Tuesday and expectations are that it will leave
interest rates unchanged, since inflation is at its lowest
since the early 1960s.
But recent data has shown robust growth and increasingly tight labor
markets, making some investors nervous that the Fed
might still preemptively tighten monetary policy to stem inflation.
"Tomorrow's PPI number will be another clue as to whether the economy is heating up," Coolidge said.
Many investors kept on the sidelines, with the yield on the key 30-year
bond holding for the second straight day above the
psychological level of 6.0 percent.
"You've got a confused investme
