A traditional book has covers, a table of contents, chapters so is liner and fixed in time and space. An electric book has search engines use "wiredbrain" which is not limited in content therefore is non-liner and not fixed in time or space. |
|
A traditional book has covers, a table of contents, chapters so is liner and fixed in time and space. An electric book has search engines use "wiredbrain" which is not limited in content therefore is non-liner and not fixed in time or space. |
MSN now does the best search
Use the Codes to Wiredbrain
What is less well understood are the "qualitative" nature of human abilities. There are the following stages, each not replaced by the next advance but over-layered with each becoming dominate in turn but not replacing previous models. As canals and bicycles still play an important role in European transportation, augmented by trains, cars and planes.
The first level is the "skilled crafts" - a long apprenticeship with hands on methods produces a high level of abilities - Cathedrals with stained glass, Columbus, clocks, water wheels and the first tools and factories of the first industrial revolution. Education was literacy - Grammar schools and basic accounting, drafting and organizing shills.
In the 19th century, higher education in the Agricultural and Mechanical arts began to pay off. The newly unified Germany began to surpass England because of excellence in technical training while Great Britain stayed with the Classical educational process - founded on Latin and Greek rather than Science and Math.
The United States quickly adjusted to technical training but "trade schools" have always have low status compared to "liberal arts" college preparation. High level technical Universities such as Georgia Tech, MIT, Cal-Tech, IIT, Stanford and Polly -tech parts of the mega-universities have made extraordinary contributions to economic welfare in this country and world wide. The second industrial revolution of electrical, biological and chemical engineering is based on formal training in math and science. The MBA in business maybe useful in production of rational "corporate people" and culture. The majority of mangers still come from the technical, legal and accounting professions.
The third level of human skill for Century twenty-one has to do with creativity in a global communications technology. We still need skilled craft people, we need to improve basic literacy and grammar, enterprise, with science and technology in complex engineering tasks.
Computer people carry the unhappy title of "software engineer" because they are trying to fit into an older model of categories in human resource management. Is someone who creates games and innovative web practices doing arts or sciences or applied technology ? If you visit a trade show in the computer - consumer electronics - communications business you find new younger people doing new things with a "strange" mixture of backgrounds, including a lot of "rock and roll music" nationalities - and very unclear standards of higher education and training. Smart is as smart does - and "stupid is as stupid does".
Japan can not solve most of its basic economic problems.
Bank reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered around banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within trading groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change from the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization. The government is a committee of high level administrators that work within the system and have very little control of the system.
There is no way to pay the costs of social security and medicare for those currently in the labor force.
The shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help, the nationalization of education and medicine could help. What would make a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically possible is unlikely to do any good. The American political system can not take fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important changes in the society.
Alan Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson in basic economics. The economy welfare of any nation depends on three factors:
The skill and educational character of the labor force,
The capital stock the company and the society provides to make work productive
The ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security and health care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything produced. As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social overhead costs become very high. The relative costs of work shifts to less developed, labor rich areas.
The long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason for increases in productivity - better trained people working smarter with better tools are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the cost of payroll taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly wages.
How much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input produces in goods and services is directly related to the income from work and the return on investment. The machine that digs increases digging productivity and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots, the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases communication productivity. The cost per unit of computer power declines by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s efficiency.
The current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor force has growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been possible because of better trained women’s wide participation, more women are now in college than males and minority workers acting as a reserve along with moving jobs to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the "information" revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology have been very impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes global. Low skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the great labor pool.
Networks of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three central concepts:
Punctuated Equilibrium In Action!
Complex system are slow when adapting to changing environments and
subject to periods of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct connection on complex networks. The number of connections
increases exponentially on a global basis. Almost everything connects to
almost everything else. What you see is that the most outstanding feature
of life's history is a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems
decrease rapidly in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
Disintermediation Last updated on March 20, 1999
The Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation
The future of established institution to control economic, social
and political events is very limited. The Political process everywhere,
national and international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing,
complex, counter-intuitive, non-ideological, global policy problems and
issues. Among these issues are global warming, international finance, trade,
ethnic and class conflict, population, education, health, welfare, pollution,
warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline in the proportion of people in the labor force. The large differences between rich and poor countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around the world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies and how they play out in any market for labor or products and services. A tight labor market for skilled computer labor creates service centers in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the average ratio of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial world from 1:15 to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35. The average years of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15. Required education and training keeps more young people from the labor market - highly skilled occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of higher education ( including specialties and internships ) so the productive years start in their 30s. If they retire after 30 years - at 62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as consumers without production being supported by earning from saving and/or income transfers.
There is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers of retired from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies, even with an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and firms can do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter systems and tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain rapid growth. They are better educated, are very competitive and clever, they are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability, but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations. Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to come by because all the clear options have already been used. There is a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful is now fading and dying. The new success is in the process of being born and growing up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old and new international combines,
the USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry, in the slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways". The English crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new kinds of people and systems.
The nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully apparent. It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to change behavior because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior changes, if at all, only under coercion and crisis. The American political system, the Japanese economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to get worse before they get better.
1997 - There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency and market crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider trading and special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998 - Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more than 1/2 of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems augment by the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic problem is the same as the reasons for its success - an administrative state where the political process does not have control of the critical levers, tillers and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks of corporations, banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change. The basic facts of modern Japanese life would have to be different, and real market capitalism given more space to operate.
1998 second half - The world markets are flooded with saving and low cost goods from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing the world into a global bubble, boom and bust cycles. The real economy declines, commodity prices decline, while asset prices increase. The U.S. political system is unable to provide leadership or respond in any rational way to a growing world crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention is distracted by meanness, pointless political squabbles about scandals, spoils, money and power without focus. The people who find they can not use the democratic process to gain satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals or drop out.
1999 - The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe, extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European Union into a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest in Mexico and Latin America.
The direction of these forces is the fractured global society, made up of patterns of smaller, more temporary organizations. The percentage of the economy controlled by the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time firms stay on the list, the number of new entries increases and on a global basis most are non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands, have important international firms.
We
are such stuff - As
dreams are made on, and our little life - Is rounded with a sleep.|
|
Work
in progress -
Since 3/15/99
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
| Use the pull-down menu to go to major sections
of
The Wiredbrain Synergy Site |
|
Go to AltaVista Advanced Search use : url:wiredbrain.com and "any key word" http://www.altavista.digital.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=aq MESSAGE CENTER
Since 3/15/99
FastCounter
by LinkExchange
INDEX PAGE made
by AltaVista FEEDBACK
FORM sent by Southwindnet
Once More From the TOP:
It's about time ! The main line press has caught-on to the power of the internet ? What wiredbrain and others ( mainly Netscape, Oracle, ( considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic opinions. b. An authoritative or wise statement or prediction ) IBM, SunMicrosystems and the NOISE group ) have been talking about since Netscape 1.0 and WINS connections - the virtual office and the Network Computer has now arrived in the PC world.
"The new concept ( only to you ) goes by a variety of names: instant Web office; virtual office; instant intranet; Web tone; Internet dial tone; and so on. The idea is to provide everything a user needs on a central server. Users can then access that server over the Internet with just a terminal and a phone line. Then they "rent" Internet and intranet applications for as little as $10 to $20 per person per month. (That's a fraction of the per-user cost of an in-house intranet.)"
does need bandwidth.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1997 Instant Intranets Just Stage One in Emerging Market Struggle
Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk
What is clear but not said is this is the end of the Age of the PC. First the main frame, then the PC now the NC -
There is now a immense industry we can call IT “INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY”.
IT now represents the critical modern enterprise growing to be a quarter of all economic activity.
IT is a greater engine for growth than railroads in the 19th century, oil and chemical industries in the first half of this century. IT is equal to the auto industry, which reached 25 % in the 1950s. “IT” like the auto industry includes the hardware ( the computer or car), the infrastructure, (communications and networks or the roads) the energy ( software or oil ) the services, ( consultants and staff or Gas Stations ) and parts ( modems, drives, or car radios ). IT includes the computers ( the car ), the roads ( the telecom business ), services ( software ) and the social educational infrastructure.
IT provides the web of life for modern enterprise - design, production, distribution, sales, of goods and services. IT is the growth industry and in labor market. There are millions of new jobs and additional people needed world wide.
Unlike the auto industry the IT business evolves quickly. New hardware computers and chips, new methods of communications, new applications evolve quickly. IT is quickly becoming one unified, highly complex living system on a global basis. The whole is more than the sum of the parts - synergy that comes from elaborate interactions.
There are critical “flash point” - global telcom systems based on satellites connect to earth stations that can use telephone lines including new high bandwidth technologies, optic fiber, wireless broadband, and cable connections. The high bandwidth connections use improved modems to provide support for networks. These new networks provide what have been called telephones, television, personal computers, and something new - beyond what now are common utilities.
Berst Alert FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1997
The common base system is the “browser”, which will provide all of the application in a Java type objects - in a Video User Interface (VUI) using chips that can handle digital TV and Digital Hard Drives for storage all as parts of the new super modems.
IT is why the DOJ Microsoft case is important. What was called the “operation system” OS now becomes VUI, an interface between a “terminal” ( telephone, TV, and PC = NC ) and a communications media. The interface uses program “packets” as well as content “packets” the operational software is contained within the data. The difference between program and content no longer is significant. With bandwidth the “word processor” is attached to the files and comes as an instant updated package at the moment of use. This is Netscape’s, Oracle and others “vision” and the real challenge to Microsoft.
Now billions of dollars, huge personal fortunes, the rise and fall of great enterprises depend on complex technologies few understand. Technology has become a horse race, the fastest win rather than a dog or pony show where the judges reflect conventional values, where a horse of a different color is unlikely to win. In the now systems of knowledge, a 14 year old New Zealand boy’s solution to the millennium bug is just as much in the race as the show horses from the most established stables.
List SMART COMPANIES of companies the who's who of telecommunications
Click for Portfolio User "wiredbrain" password "synergy"
The economics profession, the federal reserve, national planners, and the stock market is just learning to deal with this change in economic behavior. Microsoft Internet Explorer 4.0 and Netscape are working on a Java Machine that will be the core of most new computer applications. Suites of application either on the "video" hard drive or on a systems server will run on these virtual machines, so will autos, and all kinds of "real" machines. This replaces Windows, Dos or other OS and MS knows it. The communications industry, in fact all of Information Technology (IT) will provide applications, voice, video, data and word processing on the internet, intranets, extranets, are all built on this CORE system which provides on demand applications. This is the BIG picture. This is the central theme. This is the main thing. Do you "get it" ?
Review the technology with the central role of core systems clearly in mind.
1960 70.2 2.3 30:1
1970 73.9 2.3 32:1
1980 76.3 1.7 45:1
1989 82.7 1.4 59:1
In
1960 the richest fifth of the world's population received 70% of global
income compared to 2.3% for the world's poorest 20%. By 1989 the richest
20% had increased their share to 82.7% while the bottom fifth saw their
share of global income shrink from 2.3% to 1.4%.6 In Brazil the richest
20% earn 28 times as much as the poorest 20%. In the US from 1977-89 the
average real income of the top 1% increased by 78% while the poorest 20%
of the population saw their income decrease by 10.4% A big shift. see networks.htm
http://www.ecdpm.org/ni/issue278/facts.html
4 % of population but 16.5 % of the World's wealth
Developing world: Eastern Europe and Russia, Latin America, Middle East parts of India and now includes most of China with a average of $ 7,000 per capita production now produces $ 35 trillion ( more than the highly Industrial countries but less per capita . ) Social stability increases - but revolutions come when things are getting better but the new richer classes are held back by the old "powers that be".
China has an average per capita $ 5,000 = $ 7 trillion GDP.. will pass the USA by the middle of the next century !
Averages
7.5 people at $ 7,500 = $ 70 trillion Gross World product
Individuals, families and firms act as sub-species and breeds, in ecological space. Ecology more like chaos theory than a calm "balance of nature". evolution is best described as a highly dynamic and unstable network of relationships on the edge of sudden change. Ecology tends toward species domination, with a few communities setting the conditions for survival of the whole system.
| Search
Tips
Search Options |
Do we really care about the great European ( Greek ) Liberal Tradition - freedom, individualism, the rights of women ( men), free expression, religious and cultural tolerance ? Because there is no natural market for these values in the "New World Order". Virtue, freedom must earned by each generation. So rather than lecture China, or puff ourselves up with false pride, we need to get at it.
The "Laws of supply and demand" have not been repealed but must be re-interpreted. Global transactions are now different in form and substance than conceived by neo-classical materialist economic models. Geo-economics create new biological relationships between politics and economics, especially on an international scale.
Reasons for a long period of growth, good labor markets and low inflation include factors that have very little to do with public policy:
1.) International capital markets efficiently redistribute capital. Local capital going into local production can easily produce more than the effective local demand. Trade wars or pump priming deficits designed to increase demand will cause increases in the money supply. More money with the same amount of goods means it takes more money to buy the same goods, called inflation.
When the Spanish empire imported gold from the New World but did not increase production at the same rate, prices went up. Money is not wealth. Now, global banking systems would quickly reinvest the King's gold in profitable enterprises all over the globe as they do for the King's of Arabia black gold, oil billions are well managed, as are Japan's trillions.
Nothing has been purchased more dearly than the little bit of reason and sense of freedom which now constitutes our pride. Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900), German philosopher. The Dawn, aph. 18 (1881).
He who the Gods would destroy, they first make boastful...
Nor was civil society founded merely to preserve the lives of its members; but that they might live well: for otherwise a state might be composed of slaves, or the animal creation . . . nor is it an alliance mutually to defend each other from injuries, or for a commercial intercourse. . . . But whosoever endeavors to establish wholesome laws in a state, attends to the virtues and vices of each individual who composes it; from whence it is evident, that the first care of him who would found a city, truly deserving that name, and not nominally so, must be to have his citizens virtuous. Aristotle (384-322 B.C.), Greek philosopher. Politics, bk. 3, ch. 9, sct. 1280 (c. 343 B.C.).
3.) Family, work, honesty, loyalty, reverence, obedience, ( Self- Disciple, Compassion, Responsibility, Friendship, Courage, Perseverance, Faith - from William Bennett's - The Book of Virtues ) are traditional cultural values and good for business: The Vices such as greed, selfishness, deceit, bad manners, T.V. mass cultures of corrupt private, educational, religious and public institutions are unfortunate for individuals, destructive to marriages and families, destroy communities, businesses, and societies.
Knowledge and competence have to be mentioned BUT as an effect not the cause of good behavior. Skills training ( which is 90 % of American - Value Free education ) can't work.. not without "practical" virtues. Charter schools, vouchers, a great National Electronic University, constitutional reform, disciple brigades, global villages, and other new ideas must be started now before the decline and fall of the West.
Do we really care about the great European ( Greek ) Liberal Tradition - freedom, individualism, the rights of women ( men), free expression, religious and cultural tolerance ? Because there is no natural market for these values in the "New World Order". Virtue, freedom must earned by each generation. So rather than lecture China, or puff ourselves up with false pride, we need to get at it.
| Search
Tips
Search Options |
| Search
Tips
Search Options |
|||||
| Search
Tips
Search Options |
RE:
A vision or the realization of a radically transformed human existence, especially one in which scientific and technological change has a strong, adverse impact on social, political, and economic structures: "This brave new world of science . . . offered broader opportunities for greater success to more people. At the same time, it scarred those who could not reap its benefits" (W. Bruce Lincoln). [After Brave New World, title of a novel by Aldous Huxley (1894-1963).]The Doors of Perception (1954) and its sequel Heaven and Hell (1956) deal with Huxley's experiences with hallucinogenic drugs.
SOMA...
| Search
Tips
Search Options |
A few major ideas: Letters from the Future:
U.S. White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy report titled "Science and Technology - Shaping the Twenty-First Century."
"No technology promises to affect our world more profoundly than the rapid sweep of digital technology. Every sector of our economy - manufacturing and services, transportation, health care, education, and government - is being transformed by the power of information technologies to create new products and services and new ways to communicate, resulting in significant improvements in productivity and knowledge sharing. "
Physical Astronomy has discussed the space time continuum for 50 years ( since the Special Theory of Relativity ) but very few of us can grasp the idea of curved space and time. Time warps, however, a common experience. Israel, for example, is in a vortex of space time where a few thousand years of social attitudes, from ancient tribes to post modern, swirl in conflicts projected into a small space. Washington D. C. can be seen as partly stuck in the 18th century, partly in the 19th century industrial age, partly in the new deal, and partly in the modern tele-communications age from the 1960’s. In parts of Africa, if people could return after a thousand years in the past, they would not find life much changed. In other places, our grandfathers would find the current world as strangers in a strange land. Queen Elizabeth II, was born into a royal world so different, that cultural shock is a way of life to her and her family. Of course they don’t "get it".
These letters from the future are notes from one of the many space-time locations that exist in reality someplace, and projections of other locations that do not yet exist. There is no single future as there is no single past. The past and the future do not exist in whatever current space time place you now occupy but are projections, myths, images seen darkly through a hall of mirrors - unknown and unknowable. What we think about the past, our current fashions in history, does shape our behavior and in the same way our expectations for the future shape the present. Future studies is not very different in style and method from history, if it is based on first hand reports from those that are already there. There are people and firms living in our future, in space time beyond where we now believe ourselves to exist. Time space does bend and move at different speeds depending on force fields around us.
The history of human communities is a unstable but consistent progression from smaller and provincial toward larger and more universal.
From family groups to clans, tribes, nations, empires, and inter-national grouping and organizations. Time get faster, distance get bigger, events and change speed up.
From local spirits and myths of creation and a flat earth under a dome of the sky to: A place where the earth turns, the Sun Stands Still, and the ideas of basic astronomy promoted in the 16th and 17th centuries are common knowledge.
The 18th century saw the separation of physical reality and science from traditional faiths for the ruling classes but not for the mass public. Modern humans become a part of natural history and evolution for the intelectuals but not the bible belt. Objective science was firmly established in the 19th century along with industrial urban society but the old styles remain. The "church" really likes the 13th century, the reform "church" the 17th.
In our lifetime the solid earth has moved under our feet as great plates move continents, mountains rise and fall.
In our century, quanta theory allows material to go from here to there without passing through the space between the objects. Mass and energy become parts of general fields. Forces in Time-Space become curved and black holes become the big bangs of more universes out of our sight in a huge cosmos.
Life forms have been found miles deep in the oceans and within the earth, organic life forms live without light, water or air. Organic microorganisms and genetic materials most likely exist widely in space. Life is prevalent cosmically and not special to our little corner of reality. The "real" world as we experience it is only a special case, so our sense of space and time is very provincial and solid matter is not what we think. These ideas are now getting into 8th grade text books.
The expansion of scientific thought has left the social, political and religious paradigms out of sink. Industrial, management, educational and psychological models which guide collective behavior no longer fit the reality of events.
CASES: An industrial school system and mega-Universities can no longer match the information transfer technology and learning skills that produce wealth and power. The role of education has declined as social gate keepers, with the role of a many social institutions designed to maintain the class status quo. It is getting harder for the ruling class to pass on family advantages to their children. Status Universities who take youth of promise and socialize then into the ways and rules of the ruling class now really need to make stronger connections between thinking and doing. Social Class traditions have been weakened by new systems of mass media and continuous learning.
A small business, chamber of commerce, labor union model of political parties doesn't relate to the changes in real power or the popular life experience and concerns. The 18th century "balance of power" constitutional structure and foreign policy doesn't work in the global economy.
The modern corporation is under great pressure as the "model" organization for economic life. The paradigm is shifting from industrial to biological, from mechanical to cybernetic information systems, from bureaucratic to dynamic small groups and task forces, from central command and control to clusters and cloud chambers, from military campaigns to expeditions in unknown territories. Management is moving from systems analysis to images of wholes and probes of successive hypothesis and the analog of order in chaos.
NOT EASY.
Copies of the SYNERGY JOURNALS sent by request: pflaump@wiredbrain.com Peter E. Pflaum Ph.D. , Headmaster GLOBAL_VILLAGE_SCHOOLHOUSE 225 Robinson Road, New Smyrna Beach, FL 32169 (904) 428-1355
