A traditional book has covers, a table of contents, chapters so is liner and fixed in time and space. An electric book has search engines use "wiredbrain" which is not limited in content therefore is non-liner and not fixed in time or space. |
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A traditional book has covers, a table of contents, chapters so is liner and fixed in time and space. An electric book has search engines use "wiredbrain" which is not limited in content therefore is non-liner and not fixed in time or space. |
Disintermediation Last updated on March 20, 1999
What is less well understood are the "qualitative" nature of human abilities. There are the following stages, each not replaced by the next advance but over-layered with each becoming dominate in turn but not replacing previous models. As canals and bicycles still play an important role in European transportation, augmented by trains, cars and planes.
The first level is the "skilled crafts" - a long apprenticeship with hands on methods produces a high level of abilities - Cathedrals with stained glass, Columbus, clocks, water wheels and the first tools and factories of the first industrial revolution. Education was literacy - Grammar schools and basic accounting, drafting and organizing shills.
In the 19th century, higher education in the Agricultural and Mechanical arts began to pay off. The newly unified Germany began to surpass England because of excellence in technical training while Great Britain stayed with the Classical educational process - founded on Latin and Greek rather than Science and Math.
The United States quickly adjusted to technical training but "trade schools" have always have low status compared to "liberal arts" college preparation. High level technical Universities such as Georgia Tech, MIT, Cal-Tech, IIT, Stanford and Polly -tech parts of the mega-universities have made extraordinary contributions to economic welfare in this country and world wide. The second industrial revolution of electrical, biological and chemical engineering is based on formal training in math and science. The MBA in business maybe useful in production of rational "corporate people" and culture. The majority of mangers still come from the technical, legal and accounting professions.
The third level of human skill for Century twenty-one has to do with creativity in a global communications technology. We still need skilled craft people, we need to improve basic literacy and grammar, enterprise, with science and technology in complex engineering tasks.
Computer people carry the unhappy title of "software engineer" because they are trying to fit into an older model of categories in human resource management. Is someone who creates games and innovative web practices doing arts or sciences or applied technology ? If you visit a trade show in the computer - consumer electronics - communications business you find new younger people doing new things with a "strange" mixture of backgrounds, including a lot of "rock and roll music" nationalities - and very unclear standards of higher education and training. Smart is as smart does - and "stupid is as stupid does".
We still need a name for the UCD: UNIVERSAL COMMUNICATION DEVICE
or "information - communications - appliance - utility-
network computer, cable or wireless black box modem, play station,
boom box, CD, DVD, VHS, camera, VCR, telephone, wireless, cordless, portable, TV,
radio, pager, laptop, notebook, library, GPS, map, yellow pages,
combat walk and talk and call in air strikes more". The market for the bandwidth and the appliances is
global - with billions of clients world wide.
The money is in software now moving from "programs" to
content. The content will be interactive media that includes
program functions. ISP such as AOL, will provide multimedia E-mail
as a word processor that can handle graphics, photographs, soon
video and data files. The browser becomes a universal systems
package do all the most common functions as plug-ins. The USB
universal serial bus ties to printers, sound and video systems,
play stations, phones, keyboards and voice commands, other
appliances and services. Microsoft-NBC-General Electric, merge
into a convergence of media and communications services. Time-Warner,
the News Corp., Disney-ABC, are positioning themselves for the
transformation of many business into one. The current crop of
Internet stocks are unlikely to be very important.
Other business includes finance, matching buyers and sellers, and
a thousand other ideas and items. The ISP becomes a bank and
travel agent, department store, and service center. Wal-mart,
Sears and other may need their own ISP. Clients will pay the ISP
for telephone service, cable, lease of hardware, Internet, credit,
and may buy their insurance, tickets, or dishes from a company
they trust, so it all adds up.
A limited set of functions and libraries in or around a CPU, with
the capacities of a play station, will run a package of on demand
utilities called from the network. Once there is a break in the
bandwidth, your browser can quickly call down any packages it may
need - high speed smart updates means you don’t have to have
everything stored. Office systems can do this now but are afraid
to be pioneers with arrows in their backs. Once Sun, Oracle, IBM
or others really have high performance objective networks there
will be no need for the bloated windows operation systems.
The market often is as slow as the political process in facing
the inevitable forces of technology and social history. Cartels
and semi-monopolies are the natural outcome of free competition
because organizations can join together to control markets.
The robber barons of the late 19th and early 20th century, such
as Morgan, Carnegie, Mellon, Rockefeller, Stanford, Dupont
controlled steel and oil, railroads and chemicals. General Motors
president Alfred P. Sloan worked with the du Pont's to control
the auto market. A U.S. Court of Appeals finds that Aluminum Co.
of America (Alcoa) held a 90 percent monopoly in U.S. aluminum
ingot production before the war, a monopoly enjoyed by the
Mellons for more than half a century. See RCA (NBC - Victor )
below..
Sun's McNealy portrays perils of running the Wintel 'gauntlet' )
( Windows/intel )
http://www.excite.com/computers_and_internet/tech_news/zdnet/?article=zdnews2.inp
Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems Inc., one could easily
draw the conclusion that most of the ills in the computer
industry stem from one company and one company only.
The charismatic McNealy used large portions of his keynote
address here Thursday at Sun's JavaOne developers conference, as
well as a subsequent press conference, to paint Microsoft Corp.
as a ruthless monopoly destroying companies and promoting a
flawed business model.
"The market economy works until somebody gets so much market
power that they are beyond market principles," he said.
McNealy said Microsoft's monopoly on the desktop through the
Windows operating system enables it to sell "bloat"
like Office 2000 that people have to buy.
"The other opportunity it has is to go out and buy little
companies that wouldn't normally be successful, bundle them into
their Windows or Office hairball and use their lock-in and
monopoly leverage to make them successful and drive everyone else
out of business," McNealy said. "That makes everybody
want to sell their company for a price lower than they want to
because if you're not the one bought, you're done."
One of the best examples of how new technologies can be dominated
by powerful forces that control standards was the companion
development of hardware ( Radios, phonographs, and then
television ) as well as soft ware, the programming, records and
content necessary to sell the product. People won’t buy
radios or TV if there are no stations, there can’t be
stations until people have radios or TVs. RCA supported the
networks in order to sell radios. Then they made more from the
broadcasting then they did from hardware.
Sarnoff, David, 1891–1971, American radio and television
pioneer; b. Russia. He worked for the Marconi Wireless Co.,
winning recognition as the narrator of the Titanic disaster (1912).
After the Radio Corp. of America absorbed (1921) Marconi, Sarnoff
became general manager. As president (after 1930) and chairman of
the board (from 1947) of RCA, he played a major role in the
development of television.
A superheterodyne circuit developed by U.S. Army Signal Corps
major Edwin Howard Armstrong, 26, became the basic design for all
amplitude modulation (AM) radios. It greatly increases the
selectivity and sensitivity of radio receivers over a wide band
of frequencies (see 1906; FM, 1933). Radio Corp. of America (RCA)
was founded by Owen D. Young (see 1919) who loans Ernst
Alexanderson to RCA which will employ him as chief engineer for 5
years (see 1906). RCA acquired the Victor Co. and become a radio-phonograph
colossus but anti-trust court actions will separate RCA from GE (see
VICTROLA, 1906; NBC, 1926). David Sarnoff urges marketing of a
simple "radio music box." The American Marconi Co. says
his plan will make the radio "a ‘household utility’
in the same sense as the piano or phonograph" (see 1912;
1920).
American radio and television pioneer who proposed the first
commercial radio receiver and in 1926 formed the National
Broadcasting Company. The first vinylite phonograph record
appears in October. RCA-Victor issues a new recording of the 1895
Richard Strauss work Till Eulenspiegels Lustige Streiche, but
vinylite will not displace shellac until the perfection of long-playing
records (see 1948).
Most people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a fifty mile range. Their perceptions are defined within what is called a tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly established as a norm. The irrational base of human understanding is clearly demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little understood as the physical. The new world order - lacks a vision or social psychological foundation.
]
The technology itself is revolutionary.
The global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance. The leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-liner, transactional, mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos - morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive of the existing order.
Japan can not solve most of its basic economic problems.
Bank reform requires a fundamental shift from combines of firms centered
around banks and holding each others shares to corporate capitalism within
trading groups and well as between trading groups. This requires a change
from the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings of modernization.
The government is a committee of high level administrators that work within
the system and have very little control of the system.
There is no way to pay the costs of social security
and medicare for those currently in the labor force.
The shift from income and payroll taxes to VAT ( consumption taxes
) will help, the nationalization of education and medicine could help.
What would make a real difference is politically unlikely, what is politically
possible is unlikely to do any good. The American political system can
not take fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond
to important changes in the society.
Alan Greenspan, in his recent testimony to congress, repeated a lesson
in basic economics. The economy welfare of any nation depends on three
factors:
The skill and educational character of the labor force,
The capital stock the company and the society provides
to make work productive
The ratio of fixed to variable costs of social overhead.
In a fully developed industrial society the costs of social security
and health care are transferred to workers and the overhead of everything
produced. As the population shifts from a pyramid to a column the social
overhead costs become very high. The relative costs of work shifts to less
developed, labor rich areas.
The long term investment in human and physical capital is the reason
for increases in productivity - better trained people working smarter with
better tools are the reasons for wealth or poverty. At the same time the
cost of payroll taxes alone becomes higher than world wide base hourly
wages.
How much each person, each hour’s labor, how much each unit of input
produces in goods and services is directly related to the income from work
and the return on investment. The machine that digs increases digging productivity
and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment, airplanes
increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or pilots,
the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet increases
communication productivity. The cost per unit of computer power declines
by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The current period of growth with low inflation, where the labor
force has growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a year ( 3 % ) has been
possible because of better trained women’s wide participation, more
women are now in college than males and minority workers acting as a reserve
along with moving jobs to lower costs areas of production and immigration.
The larger labor force has new and improved tools provided by the
"information" revolution. Productivity in some areas of high technology
have been very impressive. As we become more global, the labor force becomes
global. Low skilled occupations move to low wage areas - China being the
great labor pool.
Networks of product design, original equipment manufacture (OEM),
distribution and marketing become more complex and integrated.
Three central concepts:
Punctuated Equilibrium In Action!
Inter-connections:
The Internet Revolution:
Disintermediation Last updated on March 20, 1999 The future of established institution to control economic, social
and political events is very limited. The Political process everywhere,
national and international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing,
complex, counter-intuitive, non-ideological, global policy problems and
issues. Among these issues are global warming, international finance, trade,
ethnic and class conflict, population, education, health, welfare, pollution,
warfare etc..
The demographics of the industrial world project a rapid decline
in the proportion of people in the labor force. The large differences
between rich and poor countries is becoming complex with higher income
pockets dispersed around the world. We need to focus on global growth
rates and interdependencies and how they play out in any market for labor
or products and services. A tight labor market for skilled computer labor
creates service centers in Barbados, India, Ireland, and elsewhere.
While the average age in the developing world is in the teens, the
average ratio of workers to retired persons is moving in the industrial
world from 1:15 to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes over 35.
The average years of retirement have grown from less than 5 to over 15.
Required education and training keeps more young people from the labor
market - highly skilled occupations such as medicine takes 12 years of
higher education ( including specialties and internships ) so the
productive years start in their 30s. If they retire after 30 years - at
62 ( 70 % of Social Security retirement is at 62 ) they have an average
2/3 of their adult life or 20 years as consumers without production being
supported by earning from saving and/or income transfers.
There is no way to provide the wealth that can support large numbers
of retired from a fewer number of workers even with better public policies,
even with an historic increase in long term productivity. Individuals and
firms can do well with increased saving and investment in even smarter
systems and tools provided to a even more highly skilled work force.
A highly developed economy such as Japan has fewer way to maintain
rapid growth. They are better educated, are very competitive and clever,
they are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of fairness and stability,
but face the same basic structural problems that faces all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity gains are harder and harder to
come by because all the clear options have already been used. There
is a increasing high wall on the left of any distribution of complex systems.
What has worked no longer is working very well, what was successful
is now fading and dying. The new success is in the process of being born
and growing up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For examples of complex systems hitting a wall:
The power elite everywhere are in denial, they will soon become angry,
in the slow realization of the death and dying of the "old ways".
The English crown discovered, tradition doesn't cut it with new ways requiring
new kinds of people and systems.
The nature of change only becomes real when the effects are painfully
apparent. It's extraordinary rare for people or their institutions, to
change behavior because it's necessary, rational or prudent. Behavior
changes, if at all, only under coercion and crisis. The American political
system, the Japanese economy - corporate administrative state - called
Japan Inc., the Soviet Union - USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples
of where things have to get worse before they get better.
1997 - There is a financial crisis is South East Asia - a currency
and market crisis caused by "bubble economies" and patterns of insider
trading and special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998 - Japan, which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China which is more
than 1/2 of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural problems
augment by the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia. Japan's basic
problem is the same as the reasons for its success - an administrative
state where the political process does not have control of the critical
levers, tillers and maps. Control is in the hands of interlocking networks
of corporations, banks, and bureaucrats that would have to change. The
basic facts of modern Japanese life would have to be different, and real
market capitalism given more space to operate.
1998 second half - The world markets are flooded with saving
and low cost goods from Asia, speculation fed upon speculation, pushing
the world into a global bubble, boom and bust cycles. The real economy
declines, commodity prices decline, while asset prices increase. The U.S.
political system is unable to provide leadership or respond in any rational
way to a growing world crisis and growing trade deficit, Attention
is distracted by meanness, pointless political squabbles about scandals,
spoils, money and power without focus. The people who find they can not
use the democratic process to gain satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional
appeals or drop out.
1999 - The beginning of a Global Depression, counter-revolutionize
Eastern Europe, extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing of the European
Union into a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading unrest
in Mexico and Latin America.
The direction of these forces is the fractured global society,
made up of patterns of smaller, more temporary organizations. The
percentage of the economy controlled by the top 500 firms continues
to decline, the average time firms stay on the list, the number of new
entries increases and on a global basis most are non-American and trans-national.
Little countries such as Finland, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong, Netherlands,
have important international firms.
The doors to creative thinking and doing are in the narrow places between large structures. The empires of the world and the mind dominate the landscape. Vast historic structures obscure the view of the horizon and our real location. Down narrow lanes and in far fields we sometimes can gain images that glimmer with reflections of a pale light, far off.
Where theses narrow lanes and far field meet are the focal points of new creations.
There is a container, connected to nodes, connected to networks, creating a info-sphere of billions living reproducing pathways and elements. The bio-sphere began and is still largely made up of micro-organisms that share genetic information through networks of co-option, cooperation and communication that become organic wholes from simpler to complex. Cells take in parts from elsewhere and collect abilities of different genes. The biological and infomation packets are coming together on a global scale.
One element basic to global networks are standards. The critical standard is digital information which can be understood and act upon by all the other members of the community. The information utility will operate on a common operational language - such as HTTP, FTP, Java, that will co=option functions from different places, in words, pictures, sounds and video. The Microsoft issue is their desire to make MS-OS/ active X the universal language for all future global networks, software, operations, communications and services. Netscape’s inter-operation open arch-culture has a somewhat different vision of inter and intra operability. The global scope of mega networks makes Microsoft’s vision unlikely but not impossible. Their moves into communications, cable, satellites, broadcasting and services should be taken as very important but not as a given. Without outside intervention or meaningful competition they could set NT/active X type systems as the standard for most if not all inter-net communications.
Gates to everone - "Look upon my works ye humble of the earth and give up."
But all empires lack vision and ability to change.
It’s not hardware, it’s not software, but it is service-ware. Companies that don’t sell machines or programs but universal services. Sign-up and we give you the container, the link, and all the services you can think of and many that you haven’t though of yet.
I soon will be able to pull down the word processing "service" tied to voice and video "services". I will be able to pull down interactive forms "service", a search service, marketing services, shopping service, broadcast and narrow cast services, product design and production services, travel, insurance, investment and banking services designed and distributed by other services .
All these services we now called companies, producers, distributors, stores and markets become part of the services network. The telephone company ( tele - sounds )is a service: television ( tele - pictures ) networks and stations are service including broadcast ( send sound and picture over a wide area ): computers are not a machine or thing but provide systems capacity to do something, assign traits and store information and programs ( software to help machines - do stuff ). All these THINGS are becoming parts of a system of service with nodes and terminals.
The core of the global service system is the operational codes and languages. Everyone has to understand ever one else and terminals need to talk to nodes and servers need to communicate with servers in common coded packets moving a mega-speeds back and forth. These codes and languages are extensions of Hyper Text Transfer Protocol , ftp ( file transfer ) and operations such as Java.
Like the human brain, the internet's
packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were
destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible
to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would
have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken
into short message blocks now called each containing its own routing information, like
a DNA molecule, and able to replicate itself correctly whenever a transmission
error occurred. With many additions and permutations, his original design
is today termed the Internet, click here for the emerging history of
the 21st century. Where
we go from here ! "Companies of the future" Go
to AltaVista Advanced Search MESSAGE CENTER This
is your entry point to access different pages within your Virtual Office.
at http://wiredbrain.netscapeoffice.com/ Site Map GO TO: TODAY'S
NEWS INDEX PAGE made
by AltaVista FEEDBACK FORM sent by Southwindnet HTTP://www.WiredBrain.com / pflaump@wiredbrain.com GlobalVillages School Houses: networks.htm , today.htm,
papers.htm and book.htm
Wiredbrain's application to the
Minning Company Since other countries use the VAT, exports are taxed less
( don't pay VAT ) and imports are TAXED more. Also DO AWAY WITH THE IRS
! The only way you do better than the average
is having information beyond the average. In Europe it has been traditionally difficult
to sell NEW type autos. People say they don’t want to buy a car, which
they keep for an average of seven years, until the bugs have been worked
out and has built a reputation for reliability. GM, IBM, and other big
corporations often do not have the best product or price but the power
of marketing, distribution, service, and habit. They depend on people’s
unwillingness to be pioneers. Those on the frontier get shot with arrows.
Now billions of dollars, huge personal fortunes,
the rise and fall of great enterprises depend on complex technologies few
understand. Technology has become a horse race, the fastest win rather
than a dog or pony show where the judges reflect conventional values, where
a horse of a different color is unlikely to win. In the now systems of
knowledge, a 14 year old New Zealand boy’s solution to the millennium bug
is just as much in the race as the show horses from the most established
stables. List
SMART COMPANIES of companies the who's who of telecommunications Click for Portfolio User "wiredbrain"
password "synergy" OFF THE WALL: Projections and forecasts: 1.) President Clinton will resign ( because he
has "had-it") to become a University President sometime between
the congressional elections in Nov. 1998 and the opening of congress in
January 1999. This establishes a new Constitution system of a six
year Presidents with the next president having years of "on-the-job"
training. It also allows for a selection process other than the crazy primary
process. The new Vice-president will be black, female or both. The republicans
will run Governor Thomson of Wisconsin with a female VP. They may win because
2.) A banking crisis in China - a run on the
banks because of the problems with state run firms and the PLA industrial
complex - The
People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China has evolved causes a real crash before the Elections of 1999. A
successful coup in Russia, and a small war in the Middle East..
Once More From the TOP: The core of communications is the base of the next
revolution. Satellites connected to earth stations
with super broadband wireless and cable connecting to "smart universal
modems" for network computers and universal communications utilities
including TV. The way the core of the computer - telecommunications
market is going is at the Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s There are a new products call Web-TV, the network computer,
advanced note books with cell phone built in, and important advances in
satellite communications, Wideband / Broadband, cable modems and copper
wire telephone services. Imagine you have a black box which provides universal
communications services: video telephone, Internet, fax, e-mail, cable
TV, regular digital TV, CD music and games, had digital storage in Zig-a-bites,
and wireless modem in 10 Meg-bits per second or better. The question is
who is the Service Provider ? Imagine companies, schools, homes where instead of
millions of PC the same black box provides all the applications, data banks,
on-site and computer home workers at their work stations. The applications
programs are downloaded with the data. A 10 Mb program takes 1 seconds
to down load the functions being used at that moment. The program "runs"
on the CPU of the black box, not time share terminal, but is fully integrated
with the wide area network and the Internet. Who provides the software,
systems management, data storage, and where is the server ? Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s It could be the satellite companies who own the high
ground and the critical link in the whole system. There is the fight between
Alcatel Alsthom 1/8ALSF.CN 3/8's Skybridge and Motorola's Celestri to get
bands to develop and compete against Microsoft's Teledesic, which is backed
by Boeing (BA.N). These become the first global telephone ( tele-communications
) company with direct services to companies, and local service providers.
MCI-World Com -BT- ATT - DT -Sprint have to get into the Satellite Internet
business FAST or be replaced. They are behind using analog rather than
digital systems they should have made universal 20 years ago. I don’t see much future for WIRE including cable after
2000, and the growth markets are in China, The USS -was, Eastern Europe,
Latin America, which add up to double the number of users and four times
the amount traffic every 18 months at half the cost per unit. "For
technology, analysts said the trend within Asia could move towards
the personal computer as a cheaper, commonly available product. "Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong will probably
lead the way as far as futuristic technology into the next millennium,
but I wouldn't count out very strong IT investments in China," said
Brian Kornegay, a senior personal computer analyst at IDC. " The GREAT industrial companies of the next century
will be tele-communications with a vast variety of "services",
financial, travel, marketing of goods, retail sales, educational, all global
all around us. This is the issue Nadar
and the NOISE group are all about. In all, the three plan to launch several hundred satellites
in 2001 and 2002. The
three projects, which would offer high-speed multi- media services
via huge networks of satellites, require access to a large amount of radio
frequency spectrum. These connections make possible the Network Computer
the next generation of "smart" terminals that act as telephones,
e-mail, PCs, business shops and services. Alcatel Alsthom 1/8ALSF.CN 3/8's Skybridge and Motorola's
Celestri to get bands to develop and compete against Microsoft's Teledesic,
which is backed by Boeing (BA.N). In all, the three plan to launch several
hundred satellites in 2001 and 2002. The
three projects, which would offer high-speed multi- media services
via huge networks of satellites, require access to a large amount of radio
frequency spectrum. These connections make possible the Network Computer
the next generation of "smart" terminals that act as telephones,
e-mail, PCs, business shops and services. User
wiredbrain password synergy http://www.techweb.com/investor/feed/stockRes.cgi
dailystocks most
excellent information The
report illustrates just how dominant the computer sector of the economy
has become as technology has become increasingly advanced. .. For example,
the study found that the average wages of those who provide high-tech services
are, in Kazmierczak's words, "phenomenal," with high-tech employees
earning 73 percent more, on average, than private-sector employees. Providers
of software services in particular, he said, are finding current economic
trends to be extremely favorable Ericsson
Hosting Internet & Wideband Wireless Conference Two-Day San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners
Discussing Convergence Strategies Third-Generation
Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems. This
technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable
wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion
video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.
It's about time ! The main line press has caught-on
to the power of the internet ? What wiredbrain and others ( mainly Netscape,
Oracle, ( considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic opinions.
b. An authoritative or wise statement or prediction ) IBM, SunMicrosystems
and the NOISE group ) have been talking about since Netscape 1.0 and WINS
connections - the virtual office and the Network Computer has now arrived
in the PC world. "The new concept ( only to you ) goes by
a variety of names: instant Web office; virtual office; instant intranet;
Web tone; Internet dial tone; and so on. The idea is to provide everything
a user needs on a central server. Users can then access that server over
the Internet with just a terminal and a phone line. Then they "rent"
Internet and intranet applications for as little as $10 to $20 per person
per month. (That's a fraction of the per-user cost of an in-house intranet.)"
and a box that cost 10 % of a PC work station (
$500 vs. $5,000 ) and doesn't crash, doesn't need systems managers, and
doesn't require constant upgrades but does need bandwidth. MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1997
Instant Intranets Just Stage One in Emerging Market Struggle Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk What is clear but not said is this is the end of the
Age of the PC. First the main frame, then the PC now the NC - There is now a immense industry we can call
IT “INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY”. Ericsson
Hosting Internet & Wideband Wireless Conference Two-Day San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners
Discussing Convergence Strategies Third-Generation
Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems. This
technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable
wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion
video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.
NEW YORK, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Ericsson today announced
that it will hold a Convergence Conference Nov. 11-12, 1997, at the Clift
Hotel in San Francisco. Addressing Ericsson's Internet initiatives and
strategies, and its technology for Third-Generation digital Wideband
Wireless Multimedia systems, the conference features executives from
Ericsson and leading computer and Internet companies. IT now represents the critical modern enterprise growing
to be a quarter of all economic activity. IT is a greater engine for growth than railroads
in the 19th century, oil and chemical industries in the first half of this
century. IT is equal to the auto industry, which reached 25 % in the 1950s.
“IT” like the auto industry includes the hardware ( the computer or car),
the infrastructure, (communications and networks or the roads) the energy
( software or oil ) the services, ( consultants and staff or Gas Stations
) and parts ( modems, drives, or car radios ). IT includes the computers
( the car ), the roads ( the telecom business ), services ( software )
and the social educational infrastructure. IT provides the web of
life for modern enterprise - design, production, distribution, sales, of
goods and services. IT is the growth industry and in labor market. There
are millions of new jobs and additional people needed world wide. Unlike the auto industry the IT business evolves quickly.
New hardware computers and chips, new methods of communications, new applications
evolve quickly. IT is quickly becoming one unified, highly complex living
system on a global basis. The whole is more than the sum of the parts -
synergy that comes from elaborate interactions. There are critical “flash point” - global telcom systems
based on satellites connect to earth stations that can use telephone lines
including new high bandwidth technologies, optic fiber, wireless broadband,
and cable connections. The high bandwidth connections use improved modems
to provide support for networks. These new networks provide what have been
called telephones, television, personal computers, and something new -
beyond what now are common utilities. The common base system is the “browser”, which will
provide all of the application in a Java type objects - in a Video User
Interface (VUI) using chips that can handle digital TV and Digital Hard
Drives for storage all as parts of the new super modems. IT is why the DOJ Microsoft case
is important. What was called the “operation system” OS now becomes VUI,
an interface between a “terminal” ( telephone, TV, and PC = NC ) and a
communications media. The interface uses program “packets” as well as content
“packets” the operational software is contained within the data.
The difference between program and content no longer is significant. With
bandwidth the “word processor” is attached to the files and comes as an
instant updated package at the moment of use. This is Netscape’s, Oracle
and others “vision” and the real challenge to Microsoft. Berst Alert FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1997 The economics profession, the federal reserve,
national planners, and the stock market is just learning to deal with this
change in economic behavior. Microsoft Internet Explorer 4.0 and Netscape
are working on a Java
Machine that will be the core of most new computer applications. Suites
of application either on the "video" hard drive or on a systems
server will run on these virtual machines, so will autos, and all kinds
of "real" machines. This replaces Windows, Dos or other OS and
MS knows it. The communications industry, in fact all of Information Technology
(IT) will provide applications, voice, video, data and word processing
on the internet, intranets, extranets, are all built on this CORE system
which provides on demand applications. This is the BIG picture. This is
the central theme. This is the main thing. Do you "get it" ? Review
the technology with the central role of core systems clearly in mind.
and common misconceptions: the division between
conventional wisdom and reality. In any case, there is something wrong with making the
survival of the fittest the guiding principle of a civilized society. This
social Darwinism is based on an outmoded theory of evolution just as the
equilibrium theory in economics is based on Newtonian physics. The principle
which guides the evolution of the species is mutation, and mutation works
in a much more sophisticated way. The species and their environment are
interactive, and one species serves as part of the environment for the
other species. There is a two-way feedback mechanism, similar to reflexivity
in history, only in history the mechanism is driven not by mutation but
by misconceptions. George Soros has make billions when the common knowledge,
conventional wisdom is out of sink with reality. His central point is that
"objective reality" is separate from the ideas that describe
or explain what is being observed. Whatever our ideas about "science"
the physical reality doesn't change. Our "uncertainty" or viewpoint
on physical quantum doesn't change the phenomena itself. On the other hand, public and expert perceptions
of human activities changes the nature of the activities themselves. Our
beliefs change our behavior and common social habits and ideas change who
we are and what we do. This is a reflective feedback loop between perceptions
and reality. Political theory, religious faiths, economic assumptions,
mass media chatter, advertising, hype, hope, needs, wants, passions or
truths and lies all make social reality "unknowable" and social
action can not be based on just objective reality and the facts. "No technology promises to affect our world more
profoundly than the rapid sweep of digital technology. Every sector of
our economy - manufacturing and services, transportation, health care,
education, and government - is being transformed by the power of information
technologies to create new products and services and new ways to communicate,
resulting in significant improvements in productivity and knowledge sharing.
" Diana is a modern person. The creation of mass media.
A character in a soap opera. The "people" identified with the
struggle of the new with the old, the flow of modern communications vs.
Traditions built in grand isolation. The castle wall have fallen. Social
space has collapsed. The mass cultural mythologies and dreams overwhelm
the myths of royal past. The context is foggy passions the reality is power
of social control. The "establishment" can not control the media,
they have lost touch with the passions of the people. The king is dead,
long live the king ! Now the social reality of the human population on planet
earth is going through a basic mutation, a major change in form, new forms
of business evolution; where common perceptions and conventional wisdom
is often disconnected from the situation on the ground. The mass emotion
on the death of Princess Diana, is unexplainable, so are stock markets,
the impacts of technology, political reform, capitalism in China, and the
major events of our lives. There can be balanced judgments and clever analysis
but nothing close to certain knowledge. Netscape, Oracle, IBM, SunMicrosystems and
Everyone else ( Corel, Novell ) see "Internet technologies are creating
an opportunity for new "information utilities," but no one yet
knows what they will look like, Eric Schmidt, chairman and chief executive
of networking firm Novell (NOVL) said in a speech this morning at Summer
Internet World. We are not at the end, but at the beginning
of this journey," Schmidt said referring to the evolution of the Web.
"We have a name, the Web, but we may not have a destination"
CNET NEWS
And.. Westell, @home, @work, CAIS, American
Information Ameritech, AT&T, Cable Companies, and a rising star in
wireless.. Another innovation from the World's News Leader...CNN
Interactive(sm) now pushes news wirelessly to your desktop or laptop computer.
It's non-stop, world-class news reporting on your computer screen without
logging on to the Internet. Wireless options grow for fast access By
Jeff Pelline July 24, 1997, 1:30 p.m. PT The future belongs to the aggressive,
fast organizations that grab the new technology - Examples: C/net,
Excite,(XCIT) CNN, (TWX) Pointcast, (EDS) Ericsson, Nortel, Lucent, Motorola,
Hughes-Atcatel, Zenith,(z) General Instruments, Scientific Attlanta, TCI,
EchoStarr and the News-corp, Cisco, AmerTech, @home, ATHM A .few
companies IXTC
-- IPass, Global Reach Internet Connection, and Homegate Aug 5th ....in one day with a flat market.. next day
in a down market ....now on Aug 21 Iridium IRIDF at 28 7/8 up 40 1/2 ****GOOD Globalstar GSTRF 35 to 37 to 40 7/8 ****Good FOR
CURRENT PRICES from DataBroadcasting http://stocks.wired.com/stocks_portfolios.asp
wiredbrain password synergy see PACKETS What happened to Apple
was not mainly problems with markets and technology but cultural. There
is no magic from the great CEO from above - some great idea or certain
magic leader .. but a social system. Apple was a great place that was (almost)
destroyed by people who didn't understand or care about relationships. The Sense and reality of Control: Many, if not most people, believe they can
not control who they are - they believe they are what they are and
can't change their basic character or personality. We can control the inside more than we can
control the outside; so our ( Western ) belief system is in constant conflict
with external reality. In the grand scheme of things, we mainly really
only control our beliefs about reality and our attitudes about what we
can do about our future. The art of "success" is the faith in
the future, and our attitude: Going with the flow...not in a passive way
but proactive get us down stream. It is going along with the reality
of ourselves and the world around us in order to get along with
ourselves and the world around us. It releases energy if we are in the
main stream rather that fighting the flow of energy in self conflict. Fighting
with reality because the world is NOT what we think it is, is a childish
waste of time and kind of crazy in grown-ups. Many people, if not most people, believe they
can and are responsible to control the world around them. They know a lot
of things are "out of control" but they maintain a belief in
control. This is what it is "a belief". It causes a lot of frustration
and tension. The future does not exist. We can control our
beliefs about who we are and where we fit in. We are 100 "selves"
parent, worker, economic, political, romantic, soldier, sailor, beggar,
thief, saint and sinner, and 88 more including a god. We can select from
these selves those that will get us what we want and need. We can also
select our wants and needs to fit what we can get. 4.) better technology ( the result of one, two and three ) plus The inclusion of more and more people and their differences allows
for innovations, freedom of expression, democracy, freedom and 7.) integration of smaller groups into larger wholes - The Politically correct visions of left and right often miss the
fundamentals of social history and science. The right forgets the critical
role of the "whole" and the left the requirements for standards
and clear returns on investments, where cost and benefits depend on individual
achievement motivation to go faster, further and higher. Such motivation
is best done in "collectives" families, groups, packs, tribes,
schools, factories, political parties, churches, and other human life
forms. The PLA needs a tough all terrain communications
device - Communicator with Data, Voice, graphics, ( Internet Browser
) brown box by the millions. The bandwidth is provided by Satellites and
wireless transporters like cellular phones but better. The PLA has the capacity to launch satellites and participate
in manufacture of the network equipment and instruments. The contract could
be for 10 years a few billion a year. The system has vast private applications.
Cable & wireless, Singapore communications, German and Italian telephone,
The Russian networks all can use the low cost tough cellular capacity of
Low orbit satellites. Microsoft scours world
for employees. US software giant Microsoft has
announced plans to increase its US workforce by 19 per cent over the next
12 months, maintaining the west coast of America as 'the centre of the
universe for the software business'. The company plans to recruit 3,600
people, many of whom will come from outside the US due to a shortage of
good software developers in the States. The
Independent, UK. 18/07/97 IT For
example: The demand for skilled
foreign IT people : Salary increase 17 % per year, . The Information Technology Association of America,
which represents hundreds of companies from Intel and Microsoft to consultants
and recruiters, estimates there are already 190,000 high tech positions
standing vacant in American IT and non-IT companies. "This can be
considered a conservative estimate of the gap between companies&rsquo
growth needs and the current availability of IT workers," says the
ITAA study, "Help Wanted: The IT Workforce IEEE-USA Legal Immigration Policy Issue ... URL: http://www.ieee.org/usab/DOCUMENTS/FORUM/ISSUES/immigration.html
Summary: In 1990, partly in response to claims that
the nation faced serious shortages of engineers and scientists, Congress
authorized substantial increases in employment-based immigration to the
United States. Engineering unemployment increased from 2.1% in 1990 to
an all time high of 4.1% in 1993 when 73,000 engineers were out of work.
More Like This: Click here to perform a search for documents like this
one. There is a current shortfall
of 250,000 IT positions in the US costing billions of dollars MS great idea was not technological
but social. They collected people and created
synergy. What Microsoft has is not only a great leadership but 1000's of
motivated and talented creators. They hired "people" and then
found how they fit in - they didn't create positions and try to fit people
into jobs. It's the culture stupid. The
shift is from material resources to human talents.
Businesses, as well as most organizations
outside the business world, begin to shift from hierarchical processes
to networked ones. People working in all kinds of fields - Going with the flow of the changes
over the next 15 years: http://wmg.netcastnetwork.com/
Opening
address:
9:00 pm
- 9:30 pm
http://www.forbes.com/telecosm/
The four principles:
1.) The rule of law
The Information Economy:
1.) Rapid decline in the cost of hardware and
communications
How do these tie together ?
1.) International law for global commerce
The "new world order" requires systems of international
regulation of global commerce. A rule of law for communications - rapid
systems for deployment of new technologies and reasonable conditions for
enterprise.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF or Fund) and the
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD or World Bank)
were both established at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference,
held at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, on July 1-22, 1944. The two were
created to oversee stability in international monetary affairs and to facilitate
the expansion of world trade. Membership in the World Bank requires membership
in the IMF, and they are both specialized agencies of the United Nations.
The World Bank was given domain over long-term financing for nations in
need, while the IMF's mission was to monitor exchange rates, provide short-term
financing for balance of payments adjustments, provide a forum for discussion
about international monetary concerns, and give technical assistance to
member countries. These functions are still generally true of both organizations,
although the policies determining how they are carried out have been modified
and amplified over time.
The Fund's legal authority is based on an international
treaty called the Articles of Agreement (Articles or the Agreement) which
came into force in December 1945. The first Article in the Agreement outlines
the purposes of the Fund and, although the Articles have been amended three
times in the course of the last 47 years prior to 1998, the first Article
has never been altered.
http://www.cftech.com/BrainBank/FINANCE/IMFHistory.html
There needs to be a new expansion and agreement including
standards of Free Trade The WTO is the only international body dealing
with the rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO agreements,
the legal ground-rules for international commerce and for trade policy.
The agreements have three main objectives: to help trade flow as freely
as possible, to achieve further liberalization gradually through negotiation,
and to set up an impartial means of settling disputes.
Details and special cases:
Human resources are the critical prerequisite to the process of building wealth, prosperity and the civil open society. The reasons for the "Wealth of Nations" or the relative poverty of "backwardness" has to do with the character and skills of the population. Curiosity and a positive image of the future are the reasons for the industrial revolution, first, second and third. The religious and political changes in England and the Low Countries in the 15th century made for the possibilities of the modern world.
Technology is going to make the world around us smart
as we move away from proprietary architectures to a standards-based
ecology of information. Something missing:
An astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever be able to
understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Complex system are slow when adapting to changing environments
and subject to periods of rapid degeneration and extinction.
Direct connection on complex networks. The number of connections
increases exponentially on a global basis. Almost everything connects to
almost everything else. What you see is that the most outstanding feature
of life's history is a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems
decrease rapidly in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
Details and special cases:
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=Disintermediation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The U.S. constitutional system of divided powers,
Japan Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old and new international combines,
the USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
Ramblings:
"packets,"
Table of Contents:
Where
we go from here ! VISIT THE MONEY MACHINE
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Low Orbit satellites beam down to earth
- Communications, media, the nature of work and the wealth of nations.
Lugar
Plan To Replace the Income Tax With A National Sales Tax
THE NOISE on packets.htm
for technology
UP-GRADES: Horse race or dog and pony
show ?
New and Improved ? Thoughts on the Explorer
Upgrade
China's People's Liberation Army is business dynamite that
can explode !
into the mainland's biggest conglomerate over the past
10 years and is spreading overseas
3.) So much for peace and prosperity ….
s o
w e l c o m e
t o
t h e
2 1 s t
c e n t u r y
NOTES AND COMMENTS
John Sidgmore.
but not clear to most reporters and observers.
This is one way to visualize what is happening. John Sidgmore.
/monday.html">Bill
Gates keynote at Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s John Sidgmore.
presentation of NT 5 + uses a NC ( Network
Computer ) he po-poed last year. The next step is from LAN ( local networks
) to the internet. He talks PC but programs NC for all the reasons as a
low cost "utility" device Larry of Oracle said last year. The controlling Paradigm:
Letters from the Future:
The Last Norman Conquest:
In the visage of Diana, Princess of Wales, you can
see the remains of Spencer, a Norman knight. Spencer as much of the British
nobility earned their lands and titles in the Norman Conquest of 10 66.
The ruling class in Great Britain has been for a 1000 years the remains
of an Army of Occupation.
The "people" spoke old German, the upper
class spoke French and they still speak different languages, in different
accents. The landed aristocracy lived in the manor, the landless peasants
in the villages. They still live in different places, go to different schools,
vote for different parties, read different newspapers, and think about
Diana, the Royally and power in very different ways.
England has never had a social revolution. The weight
of social class has held back "the Modern world" as primitive
religion has done in other parts of the world, including the Bible Belt
in America. Maybe its time to change. Modern social class is built on technology
and the income that comes from innovation, not ownership of land and titles.
Orbital Sciences ORBI at 20 7/16 22 5/8 ***GOOD
SEE MESSAGE and STOCKS
Backwards:
From argument to
intrigue :
It happens all the time - in Universities,
in schools, in the U.S. Congress, in families and churches; and a lot of
companies. Honest discussion, freedom of expression, breaks down and people
turn to plots and personal agendas. Maybe this is the best clue to future
success or failure. I would invest in firms, or societies where there is
open discussion of the issues.
Human Evolution was for 300,000 years in troops - where everyone
knew each other, their names and the relationships. Any animal behavior
in their packs, troops, herds and their breading behavior is almost impossible
to change. The few species that became domestic have patterns of status
and "pecking orders" that allow humans to "implant"
themselves as dominant and in control. Most species will not become domestic
after thousands of years of efforts. Zebras do not act like horses, Camels
remain nasty, most animals are subject to panic and some will not bread
in zoos. Humans have evolved with the same kind of behavioral "groves".
Social conditions that fit the groves of human psychology and social-biological
habits (Edward O. Wilson)work better that conditions that don't. "Human"
urban conditions push humans beyond the breaking point. Stable organizations
must use "group dynamics" as forms of extended families and clans,
troops and tribes to form nations.
The functions of any society, group, class, school,
business, is:
1.) Effective conflict resolution PATHOS
( feeling ) good rather than nasty
2.) rational effective decision making LOGOS
- if people feel OK They can behave more reasonably
3.) harmonious economic redistribution ( synergy ) ETHOS
- shared values and goods - not socialism but rational welfare policy
- makes one and two possible - Capitalism as Greed is dysfunction - but
so is free for nothing socialism
5.) police and/or military power ( law and order )
6.) large and productive territories by way of the the growth of US as
more and more others are included as US and less defense from them as less
and less outsiders are THEM. Good Religion and Politics should allows for
more inclusion less exclusion. All religion is not good, all values are
not right or useful, all politics is not bad, all education is not useful,
all business is not greedy, all women, blacks, Jews, et al is not anything.
Prejudice is not a rational guide to social or personal wisdom. Great opportunities for a few Million
good people
The PLA ( People's Liberation Army ) Contract:
A powerful coalition of American IT companies
say these highly educated immigrants are a critical part of solving a severe
personnel shortage that is a drag on the U.S. industry. They warn that
they may be forced to take their production outside the country if they
can&rsquot hire more people from abroad.
THE
LONG BOOM ?
the professions, education, government, the arts - begin pushing the applications
of networked computers. Nearly every facet of human activity is transformed
in some way by the emergent fabric of interconnection. This reorganization
leads to dramatic improvements in efficiency and productivity. The Western ( white ) Industrial
world is likely to decline in relative terms from two thirds of Global
Product (WGP) to 45 %. China will move from underdeveloped to developing,
from less than a $1,000 PCP ( per capita product ) to over $5,000 ( in
current dollars ). The developing world will grow from one third of the
George
Gilder, President, Gilder Technology Group, Inc.; Contributor, FORBES
ASAP
Special
address:
Steve Forbes,
President & CEO, Forbes Inc., Editor-in-Chief, FORBES Magazine
2.) Sound currency
3.) Reasonable regulations and standards
4.) Rational taxes
2.) Rapid increase in usage
3.) Increased speed of applications of
new technical standards and symbols of integrity
4.) Rapid change in organizations
2.) Global currencies and banking - credit systems
3.) Global communications standards
4.) International standards for taxes, business
regulation
